Sixers '09-'10 Season Preview: Reasons to Be (Cautiously) Optimistic

Finally, today is the day that we've all been waiting for, the one we've watched and offered endless prognostication for, the one that will keep us up late at nights and be the topic of every office / dorm room conversation. That's right--it's the night of the 76ers season opener! Yeah, all right, so that other team is still technically playing somewhere in New York, but c'mon, nobody cares about those guys, they never win anything. The Sixers, as we all know, is where the city's true devotion lies.

All right, so all sarcasm aside, the Sixers do play their first game of the season tonight, paying a return visit to sunny Orlando to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round last season--and believe it or not, that is cause for excitement. I'm not going to try to tell you that the Sixers are going to be contenders this season, because they're not--they'll be somewhat fortunate to even make the playoffs, and a third-straight first-round exit does seem like a distinct possibility. But they're going to be a fun, exciting team, one with a couple players on the verge of the legit stardom, and one with hope--if not necessarily expectations--for the future.

Wanna run down the reasons why? I thought you'd never ask!

10. Continuously Wide-Open Eastern Conference

There seems to be little to no doubt about the conference's top three teams--Orlando, Boston, Cleveland, in some order---and after that, there's probably the Hawks and the resurgent Wizards. Then, it's pretty much open season. There are five teams--Chicago, Miami, Detroit, Toronto and Philly--and maybe even more, who could finish anywhere in between 30 and 50 wins this season. At least one will be plagued with injuries, and at least one will be plagued with general bad voodoo--assuming the Sixers aren't one of those teams, we should be golden. 40 wins has been about the buy-in for the playoffs in the east the last two seasons, and it should probably be for a third season as well.

9. Jrue the Damaja

Falling to the Sixers in the draft with the 17th pick, I don't think there's ever been more than a sentence written about Holiday without sneaking the words "raw" and "project" in there somewhere. It's true--watching him in the pre-season, he seems undeniably talented (skilled playmaker, tenacious defender), but still a little slow on the uptake with regards to decision-making (turnovers, low-percentage shots). It's hard to say how long it'll take him to get there, or if he'll definitely get there at all, but it should be fun to watch him (hopefully) develop over the course of the season.

8. Marreese Speights

The offensie-minded power forward gave the Sixers a much-needed jolt of energy (and a mucher-needed jolt of outside shooting) midway through the season last year before running into the much-dreaded rookie wall. I still have questions about his defensive abilities, his maturity, and most pressingly, his basketball IQ, which is why he's as low as he is on this list, but he's still likely to be one of the team's most reliable half-court players and electric fast break gunners, and he looked damn good in some of the pre-season games. The return of Mid-Season Marreese would do wonders for the team offense--especially if he could shore up his defensive game enough that he could serve as a late-game replacement for Samuel Dalembert.

7. Rodney Carney

I felt somewhat vindicated to hear NBA TV anchor and noted Minnesota Timberwolves megafan Rick Kamla bemoan the Wolves' apathy towards re-signing Rodney Carney--the swingman the Sixers acquired via trade in the 2006 draft, who played two seasons before being exiled to Minnesota to make cap room for the Elton Brand signing. I loved the guy during his time here, and I still don't understand why he keeps getting short-changed like this--he's a powerful, athletic guy that can fly with the best of 'em and keeps improving his long-range stroke. Now back with the Sixers, he gives badly needed depth to a bench hurt by the promotion of Lou Williams, and he should be able to spell the badly-overused Iguodala from time to time. And he kind of looks like Lieutenant Sydnor from The Wire.

6. Hott New/Old Uniforms

Seriously, how much are we digging these new retro unis? It's unlikely that attempting to revive the Spirit of '83 is going to bring about similar returns in terms of wins or championships, exactly, but hey, some things never go out of style, right? I look forward to watching our boys in these colors all season, and I'll be sure to pick one out for myself at the first Sixers home game I go to this season.

5. Jason & Jason

That's right--we have two white guys named Jason on our team now! One of them you might remember from a couple years ago, the seven-footer Jason Smith, who returns from an ACL injury that kept him out all last season to give the team a more offensively proficient (read: can hit shots) alternative at the center position to Dalembert (I even saw him hit a couple threes this pre-season, honest!) The other is a more recent acquisition, three-point specialist Jason Kapono, who gives the Sixers the long-range threat they've so badly lacked in recent years. Watching Kapono play with these guys, I'm reminded what a luxury it is to have a trailer on the break who can reliably hit an open three--it's far more important to the success of a running team like the Sixers than people (including myself) probably realize.

4. Embracing the Ivy League

The Sixers' experimentation with the Princeton Offense in this pre-season has been...well, a work in progress, to be generous. But I do believe that this is the eventual way to go for the Sixers, who with Lou Williams now at the helm, lack a conventional point guard, and were always somewhat stilted in the half-court to begin with. A motion offense by its very definition sounds like a good thing, and Eddie Jordan certainly seems like the man to install it. The question is of which Sixers are going to be able to best embrace its tenets--'Dre seems like a natural fit, but who else? I have a feeling that once the team gets a better feel for it, and for each other, though, it could end up being a beautiful thing.

(Side note, though: I never much cared for the term "The Princeton Offense." Nothing against the university, and it may be an accurate or fair designation, but you don't really want your pro sports team associated with a school like Princeton, do you? Thus, the Sixers' offense from this point forward will be referred to as "The Rugged Streetball Offense.")

3. The Re-Branding

Elton Brand is going to cause me a heart attack before the end of the season. I want so badly for him not to be a flop, an albatross of a signing, that each minor failure of his causes a wrenching pain in my side. The good news is that he's definitely healthy again, and he once again looks like a total monster, and should be able to get up and down the floor with the young'ns OK. But his success, more than how or if he's able to fit into the team's running game, comes down mostly to two things:

1. Can he finish in traffic?
2. Can he hit a twelve-foot jumper?

From what I've seen, the jumper is a little touch-and-go, but I have faith in that coming out positively. Elton still seems to be struggling a little with the finishing in traffic, though--I saw him do this all last season, where he'd get the ball in the block off an offensive rebound or something, and he just wouldn't be able to get it back up without the ball being blocked or stripped away. I don't know if it's just a matter of his height, or if it's a hesitancy thing due to so much time out of the league, but if he's able to be productive in a crowd down low, it'll mean a world of difference for this team--especially if, as some have suggested, the Sixers want to try shifting Elton to the center position and getting Sammy's detrimental ass out of there. With a full season to work with and lowered expectations across the board, you gotta figure that the guy's gonna be able to put it back together.

2. The Development of Thaddeus Young

The guy's made such unbelievable strides since being drafted in 2007--both figuratively and literally--that it's hard not to be excited to see what comes next. With an improved jumper and maybe a little more bulk, there's no reason why this guy can't be one of the dominant forwards in the Eastern Conference. He's the kind of player that always seems to do one thing a game you never saw coming--an offensive rebound he swoops in for from out of nowhere, an and-one he somehow gets over the rim and in, a bank shot he has no business pulling off. He may or may not be a franchise player--we still need to see a little more aggression from him, a little more vocal presence--but he's absolutely the kind of guy you want to build your franchise with. 

1. Andre Iguodala, All-Star

It is my unwavering belief that Andre Iguodala was one of the ten best players in the Eastern Conference last season. The amount he gave this team in just about every facet of the game, from defense to leadership to clutch shooting, was what is traditionally expected of the league's star players. But 'Dre continues to hover a level below that distinction--namely, because he doesn't score 20 a game, and often doesn't even try to. But Iguodala's the reason I continue to believe in this team's potential, even without Andre Miller, and even if Brand never turns out to be the player the team thought they were getting.

'Dre really showed his value in both of the team's playoff wins against Orando, sinking the difficult game-winner in G1 and having the offensive game of his life in G3. Of course, he also showed why he's not quite yet a superstar in the team's losses, where he could not or would not simply take over and impose his will on the opposition, in the way that most of the league's elite could. Whether Iguodala will ever be able to reach that level is unclear, and probably unlikely. But if he continues to play at the level he has the last two seasons, and the Sixers remain semi-competitive in the east, it'll be a travesty if he isn't voted to his first all-star team.

Ultimately, what I think we have here with the Sixers is this: A team that is going to be very, very inconsistent. What the team is going to miss most with Andre Miller's departure is his stabilizing presence--he had some ups and downs, sure, but you generally knew what you were getting from him each night. Few, if any, of the players on the current Sixers roster are like that. One night Iguodala will be hitting his high-arcing jumper and slamming down megadunks, and another he'll be trying too hard to drive the lane in traffic and missing his free throws. One night, Sweet Lou will be reminiscent of '01 Iverson, and another he'll be reminiscent of '08 Iverson. One night Elton Brand will be a dominant power forward, and another, get me a fucking antacid.

You could see this already in the team's pre-season: They beat the Suns by 20, and then they lost to the Nets by just as much. In the end, I think it'll about even out, and the team'll probably end up close to the 41-41 they've straddled the last few years. But the electricity on the good nights will always outweigh the misery of the bad nights for me, and we should be grateful for a team that at the absolute least, always keeps things new and interesting.

Oh, and apparently they hired a hot blonde as the sideline reporter this season, too. So there's that.

Comments

[asd]

How'd the Flyers 40th anniversary and the Eagles 75th anniversary teams turn out?

Not a good omen, but not like it can be any worse anyways.

[DP]

Hope I'm wrong but this is basically a .500 team that could break either way as you said.

It could get ugly (sub .500)
-Brand continues to be an injury liability
-Lew Dub isn't effective enough at the point
-Iggy doesn't improve enough with his shot/handle
-Sammy continues the pouting, fouling out, inconsistent play and his shoulder is worse than we are led to beleive.

It could be good (45-50 wins)
-Simply reverse the above

I certainly hope they win but I'm also hoping they, dare i say, play the right way and prove we are least building toward something in the right direction.

[Joe Manning]

what are you guys doing for the opener tonight?

[DP]

I forgot to add, no matter what happens this year, Sixers are moving in the right direction with respect to the coverage unit. Jaime Maggio is definitely an upgrade over D's Nutz. That said, I love D, in small part b/c we share the same first initial and in large part b/c she knows her hoops. Now if we could only get ride of Wheels, I mean Zhumoff, and bring back the Mayor, we'd really be cooking. How about the Mayor, Mad Dog, and Jaime as a 3 person rotation.

http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/landing_09?Jaime-Maggio-Joins-Sixers-Broadcast-Team=1&blockID=83791&feedID=704

[Steve]

Am I the only person that doesn’t really understand where all of these Iguodala accolades are coming from? Don’t get me wrong, he’s a decent player, but there are at least 15-20 players in the league that are better than him. Hell, he may not even be the best player on his own team. The contract that he got before last season was completely ridiculous (especially considering his pathetic playoff performance) and I just can’t comprehend why he’s popping up all over the place. I have to believe that he thinks he is way better than he actually is. I hope that this is a breakout year for him that sees him live up to his contract, commercials, fashion sense, but haven’t we been saying that for the past couple of seasons now?

[Poster Nutbag]

what is the over/under for number of people in the delaware valley watching the sixers tonight? 5?

[ryan]

Jrue the Damaja is perhaps my new favorite Philly nickname...next to Chooch.

[Cliff]

A reference from The Wire? I'm sold. Sixers will win 50 this season.

Last year, the big question entering the season was: How does Elton Brand fit in to this team? We never found out the answer and his role remains a mystery, especially with a completely new offensive system.

In order for this team to be a legitimate playoff contender (i.e. win a round); we need Igoudala, Thad, and Lou Williams to take that "next step."

If those three can consistently spread the floor and create off the dribble, I'm not terribly concerned with how Brand fits in or how Sammy handles the offense.

It'd be nice if we could grab a board on the defensive end, too. How can a team be at the top in offensive rebounding, but at the very bottom in defensive rebounding? That's where Brand should be the most valuable.

REBOUND and SCORE. REBOUND and SCORE.

[Cliff]

Steve, A.I. has improved each season he's been in the league. He'll be an All-Star this season.

[Will]

DP - You are not alone in thinking Iguodala doesn't deserve the accolades - theres all those people that pick All-Star roster.

I think anyone thats consistently watched him knows what a great player and talent he is.

[Pizzi]

Andrew good to have you back.

I think the Princeton offense will be a revelation by December and I'm seeing 45-48 wins.

@ Steve: if you have ESPN Insider, read this:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/insider/news/story?id=4088894

It says everything last year during the playoffs that I would waste time repeating. If you don't have an Insider password, just go to 82games.com and look at all the relevant +/-, player effectiveness ratings. He's in the likes of Kobe, LeBron and the like in all of them--not saying he's on their level as a player, but you can't deny his proficiency in every facet of the game.

[DP]

@ Will: Wasn't me w/the doubting Iggy comment, it was Will. Handle is posted under the comment.

[Kevin]

I'll be interested to see what Jrue looks like and see where Thad's progression takes him. Other than that, there's nothing to watch with this team.

Anyone predicting 50+ wins is just flat out insane. This is a mediocre to bad team. Sixers don't have a starting PG. We still don't have a 2-Guard to play most of the game (Thad and Iguodala are both 3s). Brand is a huge question mark injury wise. Dalembert is marginal starter in the league.

When Lou is on the court, we're going to have trouble stopping penetration. When Holiday is out there, our half court O will grind to a halt even moreso than in the past couple years. Both of them will be turnover prone (Lou because he's Lou and Jrue because he's a rook). Our wing D is good, and Dalembert is still a threat coming off the weak side. However, our interior on-ball D is shaky at best.

Front-court depth is an issue because all four of the guys we're counting on have a history of injuries (Brand and Smith serious ones). Get ready to see a good deal of Primoz Brezec.

When the Sixers are unable to run, it's going to be a great struggle offensively. Defensively they'll be no better than average. Even with the mediocrity of the East, we're looking at a ceiling of another first round exit.

38-44, 8th seed. 14th pick. No cap flexibility for 2010-11. See you next year.

Thank God for the Phils.

[Andrew]

Kevin--

Your points are all fairly valid, though I think you're being a little dire in terms of Brand/Smith's injury status, and I'd much rather have 'Dre playing at the two than a loser like Willie Green (who I certainly hope will be limited to 15 minutes a game, tops). Also, while the Sixers won't have cap flexibility in 2010-11, they will have $12 mil of Dalembert's expiring contract to work with at mid-season, which could prove to be the most useful contribution Sammy's made since he signed that nightmare of a contract three years ago.

[Bill]

I love the Sixers and the NBA, but I honestly hope the Sixers flop and finish in the basement this year. They aren't going anywhere with this current team, and a high-lottery pick in what looks to be a strong 2010 draft would help. Finishing 41-41 year in, year out does nothing, especially in the NBA where you're either one of the title contenders (Magic, Lakers, Celts, Cavs, Spurs) or you are basically worthless.

[Cotton]

are you guys really that negative? I'm a Philly fan too, but I'm not going to sit here and bemoan the team before the season starts. They're not going to the finals. As Andrew said, the playoffs is a good aim to have.

But to not care because they're not going to win the whole thing? Stop watching basketball. This is a very young team with a lot of potential down the road. But they need experience and this is how they're gonna get it.

Steve, did you watch any of last season? Andre has gotten exponentially better with each season, and I think last year was his big year. This year all he has to do is keep doing what he do. He's been working like hell all summer, so good on him. He's also one of the most exciting players to watch in the East.

Bill, you want the team to flop the SEASON? That's gonna do nothing but ruin the attitude of the entire team. A rookie isn't going to turn this team around right away. The current lineup has to gel and win together, or at least work at winning.

Brand's a liability, sure. What was the last big man we had that wasn't? I'd still take him over almost every big man we've had since Deke.

It's not going to be a pretty year for the Sixers, but isn't that what being a fan is about? I don't even know why you bother paying attention to the team if it brings you such little joy.

[Kevin]

@Andrew

Yeah, anything's an upgrade over Willie Green. I was one or two more 21 foot 2-pointers with 17 seconds on the shot clock from developing a bleeding ulcer watching that slop.

Even though Dre's an upgrade, he's not a natural 2 in any respect. Only Lou Williams can take pressure off the half-court offense by starting with the ball in his hands and scoring himself. Your starting 2 has to do that more than a couple times a game. Dre's step back from the elbow isn't cutting it.

Trading Sam in 2010-11 is probably not worth it either. He will be a hell of a chip, but with Iguodala and Brand eating up over half the payroll, whatever Sam brings back probably won't be enough to make the Sixers a contender. If we can turn him into a young player or package him with someone else for a larger expiring contract, so be it. Otherwise, just take the cap space and be a little more prudent when you swing for the fences with your next free agent move (i.e. not Brand).

[Saul]

I posted this slightly pessimistic but realistic post in response to a particularly optimistic season preview:
I’m not saying that this is impossible. But I think there are too many questions to have it work out like this.

Iguodala: has he really made all of these strides? I agree he could well be an All-Star this season. But how will he handle the new role under the new coaching?
Brand: I certainly haven’t given up on him. But can he fit in with this team? Can he regain the explosiveness that made him a perennial 20-10 All-Star? Can he run the way this team will continue to need to?
Kapono: I love the acquisition. But his biggest problem – strangely enough – is that he just doesn’t shoot enough. Can Eddie convince to stop trying to dribble and pass all the time and just shoot?
Jordan: Will the Princeton work? How often will he run – too much, too little? When he does run it, will the players know it well enough to make it effective? If not, it could become a turnover factory. This is one of my biggest concerns. What about Jrue? How much will his famed reluctance to play rookies come out? Will it hurt his development? He has the skills and does the things that earn playing time – defense, hustle. Will Eddie give it to him?
Bill Green: He sucks. This we know. But how much will it affect the team? I’m glad he’s not starting. but he could be the 6th or 7th man, and is likely to be the primary backup guard. His skill set should be reasonably well suited to comparatively few minutes off the bench. But will he get too many? And will he produce with what he gets, or will he sulk and suck?
Speights: Will he play defense and stop shooting so much? Even though he’s not a bad shooter, that’s not what this team needs from him. He’s incredibly gifted around the basket – that’s where he needs to stay.
Sammy: Will he block enough shots for the team to have any semblance of an interior defense? This hasn’t been an issue in the past, but he’ll be asked to do more on the offense. How will it affect his defensive game? ANd speaking of offense… the PO generally asks the center, over everything else, to play intelligent basketball. Naturally, Sammy’s biggest problem has always been that he makes dumb, boneheaded plays. All the time. That will destroy this offense. Can he cut down on those?
Young and Smith: Frankly, I don’t have too many questions about either of them. Smith should be fantastic – I’m really excited to have him back. Can he stay healthy? How’s the knee? And Thad needs to continue to take steps forward, and establish a definite role. Will be able to do that?
The first unit: They’ll have to run, as always, but a lot will depend on how they handle the half-court/PO. It’s a very talented unit – even Sammy has skills – and should play excellent defense. But they can really play together and score effectively? How long will it take for them to gel?
The second unit: As far as second units go, as Ricko suggests, this one should actually be excellent. It can shoot, rebound, and defend.
The defense: I also have basically very few questions about this. It’s pretty much a known quantity. Iggy, Thad, Jrue, Sammy, Smith, Ivey, and Brand can. Kapono and Speights can’t or don’t. Bill and Lou are somewhere in between. The team will get killed occasionally – small forwards may be able to tee off on the second unit, making it susceptible to teams like Atlanta, Toronto, the Lakers, and the Cavs. Big guys shouldn’t give this team too much of a problem.
Overall, I don’t think this is a great team. I think the realistic ceiling is 5th in the East, 4th if they’re really lucky (i.e., another team has a lot of injuries). I see maybe 42 or 43 wins, and a good series but probably a loss in the first round. There are a lot of pieces, to be sure. But there are so many questions that I think they’re maddeningly inconsistent again, beating a lot of really good teams and losing to a few bad ones. They will look like champions on nights when everything is working, which it will at times. And they’ll look like the Grizzlies on nights when nothing is, which we’ll also see. We’ll have to be quick to forget both the good and the bad this season. We’re watching an above-average team. It’s not an elite one, but all these questions do make it extremely interesting… and no one will accuse them of not being exciting.
Welcome to another season of Sixers basketball. Get pumped!