Now Would Be a Good Time for the Marlins' Correction

For months, fans and experts alike pondered the unexpected success of two teams from Florida. We analyzed what was working for them and failing for the stronger teams in their divisions, and we dismissed them as peaking too early, certain that the Yanks and Red Sox would dispatch the Rays, and of course, the Mets and Phillies would be in a two-team race by mid-summer with the Marlins selling off pitchers for prospects.

Sure, there's still plenty of time for the Floridians to fall, but shouldn't it have happened by now?

On the contrary, after the Rays stumbled and appeared to being coming down to earth at the halfway point, they're back on a tear, leading the AL East at 21 games over .500. In the AL East. Over in the NL East, the three-way dog fight is heating up, with the division-heavy portion of the schedule now underway, and the Marlins are still a major factor.

Although nowhere near as dominant as the Rays, the Marlins have hung in near the top of the division for most of the season, currently sitting at 2.5 games back from the Phillies. A three-game set at Citizen's Bank Park awaits, and it could be the equalizer, or perhaps the beginning of the Marlins' downward trend we've all been waiting for.

The Fish, fresh off a series split with the Cubs, a 2-games-to-1 besting of the Mets, and another split with the Rockies, sit at 59-53. Perhaps the most surprising thing about their success is that, along with the Rangers, the Marlins are one of just two teams to have a negative run differential (-23) and still be above .500. At +76, the Phillies are way ahead of the division in this category, but so are the third place Mets and fourth place Braves. Most stat geeks will tell you that it's significantly less likely that a team will finish with more wins than it has losses if it fails to score more runs than it allows (seems obvious enough). The odds aren't in favor of any team in the red to contend for its division, although we've seen that it's certainly possible. But what better time for a statistical correction?

With the Mets tumbling back a bit (but by no means out of it), a Phillies sweep or series win would make those standings look even prettier when the Marlins and Mets face off later in the week. But let's not start counting those W's yet. With Josh Johnson back from TJ, Ricky Nolasco sitting on 117 Ks, and Anibal Sanchez also returning last week, it's somewhat likely there will be a dip in the Marlins' runs against rate. And despite playing their home games in an empty football stadium, the Marlins sit just 3 homers back from the league-leading Phillies in the long ball chase. Those bats could do some damage here in Philly, so the hot-and-cold Phils offense will need to be on as well.

We hope you've enjoyed this edition of Posts That Are Entirely Too Long and Not the Least Bit Funny. More on the semi-big series as it unfolds.

Comments

[Carl P]

I appreciate this kind of analysis on a Monday night, Pesotz.

Can tomorrow be an edition of Posts That Are Entirely Too Long and Break Down The New York Mets Closer Situation?

[Blues]

If I'm not mistaken, the Dbacks had a minus run differential last year, and they won 90 games and made the NLCS.

Seems kind of implausible, but if you win close games it can happen.

[matt p]

The D-backs are definitely puzzling if you're a believer in differentials, probably owing a lot to that whacky division and even more to their pitching

[Steve]

I expect nothing but a sweep. Not because I think it will happen, but because the Phils need to take care of business. A sweep would put them 5.5 GB. It's ridiculous, I want the Fish to be fried.

[GM-Carson]

The Phils do have the upperhand in the pitching matchups in this series considering the 3 guys going for the Phils have 38 wins on the season (Jamie Moyer 10, Kyle Kendrick 9, and Cole Hamels 9), and the Marlins only have 4 (Josh Johnson 1, Anibal Sanchez 1, and Chris Volstad 2). Career victories 292 Phils, 28 Marlins.

[Bill]

GM: Considering that that group of Marlins pitchers only has 10 starts between them in 2008, 4 wins is actually pretty good. Johnson and Sanchez have been out with injuries all season until now, and Volstad is a rookie with only 5 starts (but 2 wins) so far.

[Chris]

While the the Marlins are certainly more interesting to us Phils Phans, the Rays are an equally, if not more puzzling case. In a division where they have to lay the likes of the Sox and the Bronx Bombers more than any one in baseball, they have rebuffed every run at their hold on the AL East.

[ill]

I am a closet Rays fan. I am *this* close to going out and buying a cap. Even Sox/Yankees fans can't dislike them.

I think we can walk away from this series feeling pretty good. The Mets are playing the Padres, who swept their last series. I am hoping they can do it again while our pitching keeps the ball in the park. Will this be Blanton's first start in CBP?

[GreggyD]

It will be Blanton's second start. His first was the Atlanta game that he was forced to leave after 2 innings because of the rain.

[ill]

Just realized Blanton isn't going until the Bucs series. Less big bats, so I can live with that.

[AndyG]

@Chris - The Rays are just really good. I dunno what is so hard to understand. They have a ton of young talent, and their best offensive weapon (C. Crawford) has had, by all accounts, a down season.

But their pitching is top notch (3rd in ERA) and they get hitting from everyone. Their W-L is a tad inflated, but their pyth. is still 61-50. Nothing to sneeze at there. The Sox are still a good team...trading Manny probably doesn't help...but it'll be a good race down the stretch.