Ryan Howard is Just Fine
Ryan Howard bashed two runs in yesterday's 4-1 victory over the Cardinals just after hitting what proved to be the game winning homer on Wednesday evening. The Big Guy now stands at 27 home runs on the season. Nobody in baseball has more.
After yesterday's win, a friend of mine told me about the pleasure he got from telling off his buddies who earlier in the season were calling for Howard to be traded. I like to think I never abandoned Ryan when he was mired in struggles. Sure, I made a few jokes here and there about "how many strikeouts will RyHo get tonight?" But I had faith the former MVP would find his stroke.
And he has.
So it was with great pleasure to find old One Chair penned one of his signature columns this morning putting Howard's uncanny ability to strike out at such an alarming clip into historical perspective.
Conlin compares Ryan Howard to the late Joseph Wheeler Sewell who in one season struck out as many times as Howard has done in a single game this season, 4.
It's one of those trips through baseball history that only old timers like Bill Conlin can take you on and it makes you happy to be a fan of the game of baseball after reading it.
And happy that Ryan Howard is your first baseman taboot.
>>Howard's 27 homers outweigh his 125 strikeouts [Daily News]
Baseball Tonight likes Ryan's turn around and Chase's effort:
*also, ball players like Joseph Wheeler Sewell just sound better with three names. Although the Phillies two biggest guns aren't helped out much by their middle names: Chase Cameron Utley and Ryan James Howard just don't have that much flair.
(photo by The700Level flickr group member MarkKNJ)
Do the Phills ever retaliate? I can not remember the last time the Phillies when after another team, Utley's broken hand, Utley hit 4 times by balls in one game, ... Well maybe they just don't retaliate for Chase. On the other hand, we did send their catcher to the hospital. "HIT'M WITH A PITCH"
Posted by: Tie Manna | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 06:37 AM
The Phillies never shy away from running over the catcher, that is good enough for me. I don't think they play the kind of baseball where they want to retaliate. They play the game right.
Posted by: ill | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 07:15 AM
I don't know if Howard needs to start spring training a month earlier or if the Phillies need to have all their early away games in Arizona, Houston, and Florida but Howard just gets better as the weather gets warmer and the season goes on. Especially this year where his stats were just terrible in April and May.
Posted by: Zack | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 08:41 AM
They are going to have to move him sooner or later. He wants A-Rod money and he's not worth A-Rod money...
Posted by: Loqiel | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 08:42 AM
According to ESPN's stat keeper...
Ryan Howard has had 351 at-bats this year.
He has 125 Ks, 47 BBs, and 27 HRs.
This means that 56.7 percent of his at-bats end in a strikeout, a walk, or a home run this year.
Posted by: Loqiel | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 09:56 AM
Nice to see him restore his form, but I'd like to see his average go up, his glove improve, and his strike outs go down. THEN I'll be impressed and pay him A-Rod money.
Posted by: Jonn | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 10:18 AM
Love the Big Man getting it going, but I fear that Loquiel is correct.....the organization is going to have to make a tough call on Howard at some point if Howard insists on getting that kind of money.
Howard, I fear, is a DH waiting to happen and I don't want the Phils stuck with him when he hits that stage of his career.
Posted by: johndewar | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Nit-pick regarding his stats:
BBs (as well as hit by pitches and sacs) are not counted as at-bats so he's had 403 plate appearances.
This means he's walked, homered, or struck out in 49.4% of his plate appearances.
As for A-rod money, I love the guy now but historical comparisons to body type and position don't look good for his post 30 years. Unless the NL gets the DH, the Phils shouldn't pay him.
Posted by: dp | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Rob Neyer wrote an article about the "three true outcome" guys for ESPN Insider a while back (3-TOGs being those who strikeout, walk, and hit home runs a lot, like Howard, Cust, Thome). To look at this we have to count total ABs, not just official ABs, to get a more accurate percentage of what happens at the plate when they step in. This isn't like calculating a batting average, but instead an overall survey of what happens at the plate each and every time they pick up a bat.
Posted by: Loqiel | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 11:03 AM
Yeah, for the 3 true outcomes, you have to use plate apperances (ABs + BB + HBP), and not just at bats.
So, actually RyHo's percentage is 49.75%
(125 Ks + 27 HRs + 47BB) = 199
(351 AB + 2 HBP + 47 BB) = 400
199/400 = .4975
Posted by: MikeY | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 12:17 PM
oops, I didn't read dp's post...he already took care of that nit-pick that I posted
...and I didn't even do it right...I forgot to include sacrifices...I was close though.
Posted by: MikeY | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 12:21 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=724
Three True Outcome (TTO) average (defined as (HR+BB+K)/(AB+BB))
(27+47+125)/(351+47) = 199/398 = 50%
My first figure was wrong because I didn't add walks into the denominator. Whatever the math, it's still a freakishly high percentage!
As an aside, the Rob Deer Fan Club rules.
Posted by: Loqiel | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 12:39 PM
The Phillies are 19-16 (.543) when Howard strikes out two or more times, 31-27 (.534) the rest of the way.
I've been very disappointed with the strikeouts, especially considering the team's offensive struggles, but the most important statistic is how Ks correlate with wins and losses. In 2008, it does not appear to have a direct impact, and believe me when I say I'm trying hard to find a negative point of view here. All I can do is imagine a world where Ryan Howard makes contact about 20% more often.
Posted by: Kulp | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 03:04 PM
I'm pretty much content with a guy who mashes 50 HR's and gets 150+ RBI's, thankyouverymuch.
Posted by: meech.one | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 03:27 PM
But I had faith the former MVP would find his stroke. And he has.
Judging by the position of his left hand in that photo, it looks like Howard found something else, too.
Posted by: Chamomiles Davis | Friday, July 11, 2008 at 04:55 PM
I don't understand why he's not the biggest star in this city!
Nationally, he is a megastar, but he gets no love here.
His production numbers are staggering. He's affable, wants to win, and in person, a really sweet guy...
Our most beloved Phillie, Richie Ashburn, is a guy who hit the most singles in the '50s. We love Bowa, Nails, Chase. Little guys who overachieve.
We have a rich tradition of not appreciating sluggers.
i.e. Del Ennis, Dick Allen, Mike Schmidt, and now Ryan Howard...
Wilt was right when he said, "Nobody loves Goliath."
Posted by: ron | Saturday, July 12, 2008 at 11:46 AM