Running Numbers: Myers Stats Could Have Been Worse

Today we welcome a new feature called Running Numbers in which Dan Levy of On the DL Podcast will take a closer look at some interesting (and some inane) statistics in sports.

When Brett Myers moved back into the starting rotation for the 2008 Phils campaign, many people were cautiously optimistic that after spending the better part of last season – both in time served and quality of performance – in the ‘pen, he’d finally get his head together to be a top-flight starter in the league.

Okay, so we were probably more cautious than optimistic, but Myers did prove himself as a closer last year.  Take these numbers as a for instance. 

Myers finished the year with a 4.33 ERA having given up 33 runs in 68.2 innings, but if you take away his putrid start to the 2007 season where the quickly-rattled righty allowed 16 runs in 15.1 innings, Myers was down-right stellar after taking the long walk from behind outfield fence to the mound.  Well, I guess in some parks he may have been down one of the foul lines, but you get the point.  Myers was great out of the bullpen, recording 21 saves while only blowing three (ok, really four) and keeping a nice-and-tidy 3.14 ERA in games he pitched in, but didn’t start.  In fact, that number is skewed by two really poor outings. He gave up four runs on May 23^rd at Florida in a game the Phils won in ten and we all remember Myers’ role in the September 5^th game in Atlanta that saw both he and Tom Gordon combine to give up seven runs in two innings to blow a sure-fire division win and start what seemed at the time to be the beginning of the end for the Fightins’ playoff hopes.

 

It wasn’t just the Mets’ implosion in September that got the Phils to the playoffs.  Shaking off the shock of that loss to the Braves and riding some hot bats, the Phils took leads into the late innings of nearly every game in September, and Myers shut the door on the opposing lineup in the ninth, giving up just three runs in 15.1 innings the rest of the way home, while going 2-1 with seven saves to only one blown.  And it was Big Brett on the mound to seal the deal in the glove-in-the-air-look-how-big-my-balls-are moment I’ll never forget as long as I live, getting the Phillies to the playoffs for the first time since two years after my Bar Mitzvah.  And I’m 30.

Myers was great out of the bullpen in 2007, but the Phillies still needed to bolster their pitching staff in the offseason.  With very little on the free agent market and an unwillingness to pay mid-season-pickup Kyle Loshe top off-season dollar, the Phillies brass orchestrated a magnificent trade with the Astros to get Brad Lidge to anchor the bullpen.  But what about Myers?  Well, he’d move back into the rotation, we were assured.  And we bought it.  We took the bait, and remained stuck on that damn line for 17 starts this season – 13 of them miserable.  Not only were we duped by the Phillies that Myers could regain his form from before last year and make an important contribution to the rotation, we somehow glossed over the fact that Myers was never that great of a starting pitcher anyway. Coming in to 2007, he was 54-40 with an ERA well over 4.00 for his career.  He’d never won even 15 games and while being touted as somewhat of a strikeout pitcher, he’d never fanned more than 208 batters in a season. He was never an ace, so why was he promoted like one?  Because they had nothing else?

Brett wasn’t just put into the rotation, he was put AT THE TOP OF IT. Less we forget, he didn’t even WANT to be a starter anymore.  Getting the nod to start the season was as much as thank-you to Myers as a ‘don’t think you’re getting Ryan Howard money in arbitration’ signal to true-ace Cole Hamels.  So as Myers planned to step back on to the rubber every five days we hoped with cautious optimism.

Oops. 

Myers reverted back to his old self: bad starting pitcher.  He was 3-9 this season with a 5.84 ERA before being fitted for an Iron Pigs jersey that he may never take off.  The only reason he lasted this long in the Phils rotation is because they have no one to take his place.  RJ Swindle, a man whose name sounds like it was gripped from the pages of a terrible 50’s movie script, has been called up to throw slop after Jamie-Moyer’s slop in hopes that the Phillies can right the ship while Myers figures things out.  I can’t wait to see two guys throwing in the mid 80’s while we all hold our breath as a fan base that professional hitters won’t figure it out at some point.  I have goosebumps…from the night sweats I’m getting thinking about this.

Myers should feel lucky he’s only 3-9 this year.  In his 17 starts, he’s recorded 305 outs, 88 (28.9%) by strikeout.  In his three(!) wins, he jumps to nearly 35% of his outs by the K. His strikeout/walk ratio is 6:1 in games he’s won.  In all other games, it’s 1.6:1.What’s interesting is that not only does Myers’ K/out ratio drop in his losses (28.4%) it’s actually worse in his no-decisions (24.7%).  Leaving out the hard-luck, ten-strikeout ND to the Giants on May 3, Myers’ ratio falls to a paltry 16.7% in the other four games.  He is giving up an astronomical .65 runs per inning this season, including .72/IP in losses.  But in his no-decisions that number goes up to .85/IP (and 1.05/IP if you leave out the Giants outing).

Excusing Myers’ first ND at the hands of Tom Gordon’s season-opening mound debacle, Myers could easily have three additional losses.  On April 22^nd when he left the game losing 6-4 but the Phils came back to beat Colorado 8-6.  On June 15 he left the game against the Cardinals down 6-4 before the Phils charged back again, this time falling in 10 as Gordon and Chase Utley harnessed their inner Bad News Bears (before the Astrodome game, obviously) to literally fumble away a needed victory.  On June 27^th he gave up just enough at Texas to get pulled before letting Clay Condrey pick up the pieces to earn the loss.

If not for the bats, Myers could actually be 3-12.  Before the All-Star break.  Before July.

He says he’s healthy.  Pundits around town are looking for any excuse that he might not be right physically, but there are no signs.  I think it’s in his head.  Brett can’t handle Philly anymore.  Just like Gavin Floyd couldn’t handle it.  There’s too much pressure in this city.  Hey, some guys play better in other towns.  I think it’s time we find out if Myers is one of those guys.  That is….if anyone will take him.

Comments

[John]

Trade him to the Rays?

[Krall]

AMEN. Why don't we let him do what he really wants to do and market him as a closer. We dont want to send away any of our prospect pitchers so lets deal Myers as soon as he gets back to Philly. We should be able to make a nice package enough that we can get a real #2 starter to put behind Cole. Trust me, that bar mitzah comment made me realize I was in Kindergarden before last falls playoff run. I can't take the agony much longer

[johndewar]

You are experiencing some revisionist history with Myers' starting pitching resume.

Myers' worst year as a starter, he was 11 - 11 with an ERA in the mid-5's. That was 2004 and only his second full year as a starter.

In 2005 and 2006, he won more than he lost (winning 13 and 12 games respectively) in both years as a starter and had an ERA under 4 in both years (3.72 and 3.91 respectively). Myers' ERA from these two years as a starter is slightly above that of the career ERA of Cole Hamels (3.59).

I'm not saying Myers was as good as Hamels is now....he's not. What I am saying is that his numbers as a starter were much better than you remember.

Those years (2005 and 2006) are also better than anything Kyle Kendrick has done so far to date.

So, by your logic, maybe we should just move Kendrick to the pen as well then, correct?

Bottom line: If he wants to go back to the pen, it will HAVE TO BE as a closer or there is no way you can justify his salary. Unfortunately, because he was such a shitty starter, they gave him a big extension a few years back, so somehow, that will have to be justified.

My take is that Myers either has his head up his ass or he's hurt or possibly both.

[Dan Levy]

John,

Agreed on all points. My only reason for bringing up the past years is to say that Myers never was an ace, and never should have been considered anything close. His numbers make him a 2.5-3rd starter on most good teams.

The fact that they trotted him out this year as the "ace of the staff" was my logic behind bringing up the fact that his numbers never added up to that.

[johndewar]

Got it.

I think the "ace" thing was a reward for going to the bullpen last year when they needed him to.

Sort of an "attaguy". At least that's how I interpreted it.

[Jonn]

I can't believe people are breathing the phrase "trade him." Who would want him? Even the WBA (Wife Beaters of America) don't want to claim him. I'm pretty sure that the only player you could get for him is Jose Canseco.

[jeremy]

I'm with John.

In both 2005 and 2006, Myers' was in the top 15 for ERA for a starting pitcher. Doesn't that by definition make him a number 1 starter?

[rocuall]

Myers can't beat a minor league team???..thats sad..whats next?..high school level?...if you want to make him a reliver fine..cut his salery in half too