2007 Eagles Predictions Day...

Later today, we'll be rolling out a series of 2007 predictions by Philly bloggers. To prevent thunder theft, I'm throwing mine up ahead of the pack.

Record and Results: 10-6, Win NFC East, play in NFC Championship. No comment beyond that.

originally uploaded by GooseGoddessS.

The Offense:
The Eagles return the same offensive corps that made them nearly unstoppable when Donovan McNabb was healthy in 2007, and there is no reason their points and yardage totals shouldn't mirror those of the first half of last season. I don't think the McNabb injury will be a significant issue, and despite losing Donte Stallworth, the receivers are as good as we've seen in the Andy Reid era (2004 aside). Kevin Curtis isn't much of a step down from the dreddy one, if at all, and he's a virtual lock to play more games this season. Brian Westbrook will continue to pick up first downs on big plays on both passing and rushing downs, and the addition of Tony Hunt will pay dividends by splitting defenses with both RBs in the backfield on short and goal line situations (as long as they don't throw a quick pass to Thomas Tapeh on 4th down). The O-line should be healthy with Shawn "Croc" Andrews expected to play in Week 1; if he's in the lineup, they remain one of the best units in the league. If LJ Smith can't return healthy, and it looks like his injury could be an issue this season, McNabb loses one of his favorite targets and will have to rely on Matt Schoebel or the impressive but unproven rookie Brent Celek. In a West Coast offense facing an increasing number of teams playing Cover-2 defenses, losing LJ would hurt if these guys can't step up in a big way. If McNabb misses more than 2-3 games, all bets are off.

The Defense:
The reason I think the Birds will likely come up short of the promised land is that the defense also looks a lot like last year's, which flat out wasn't good enough for most of the season. The addition of Takeo Spikes is an enormous upgrade over Dhani Jones, but there's no promise he'll play every game, and Omar Gaither and Chris Gocong have a lot to prove. Can they back up the line on running plays? Will the be able to drop into coverage? The jury is way out. Sean Considine has looked no better than he did last season, regardless of his added weight. Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard will again be one of the best D-back duos in football though, and Will James provides depth if one of them should need a few games off due to injury. Weapon X, Brian Dawkins, hasn't seen much action lately, but all indications are that he'll be ready for the season opener, and he's never at half speed. There's been a lot of talk about Jevon Kearse's declining skills/health, with some even speculating that he could go the way of Jeremiah Trotter, but in the short time before he got hurt last season, he was a beast. The D-ends will provide great pressure this season, and the sack total should be back up where it belongs. The big guys in the middle, especially 2006 top pick Broderick Bunkley, simply have to step up and stop the run if this team is going to have any success against the squads they'll see in the playoffs.

Special Teams:
Special teams are also a concern, but only due to uncertainty coming after several key changes. John Harbaugh is now coaching the secondary, and it's Rory Segrest's first year as ST coordinator. The Birds took a big risk in letting a proven-commodity punter go in favor of an Aussie rules star on a David Beckham sunset run. I like the move and Sav Rocca's potential to follow in his countrymen's successful footsteps, but it was a ballsy move, and any botched field goal holds in close games could taint the fans' support in a hurry. Jeremy Bloom didn't work out as a returner, and the Eagles haven't announced who'll fill that role, but it's likely to be the recently re-signed JR Reed or receiver Greg Lewis. Neither is any worse than Reno Mahe, but no one's expecting Devin Hester. On coverage, someone needs to step up like Ike Reese used to and Trotter did on his second go-round. Field position is everything, and the special teams need to put #5 in striking position and keep the pressure off the defense. 

Schedule:
The schedule is challenging, but balanced, especially in comparison to the brutal division- and road-heavy end to 2006. The Eagles face a lot of teams that don't defend well against the pass (QB SoS ranked 5th), and no matter what the fans demand and Andy says, they're gonna throw the ball all day. The AFC East portion will be a rough road. Like they do most years, the Eagles will lose a few games they're supposed to win, a few they're expected to lose, and probably drop 2 division games. As far as the rest of the East is concerned, I think Dallas lost an edge when Bill Parcells quit, but they'll still bring a feisty bunch to their matchups and should contend for the division. However, along with the Giants, they're very susceptible to giving up big passing plays, so I like the Eagles in their matchups. The Redskins always come out looking "boom or bust," and even if Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are both healthy, they just don't have the talent to hang with the Birds and the 'Boys this season. The continuously imploding Giants can only hope to keep up with the Skins and stay out of dead last.

Starting this week in Green Bay, the Eagles will take us on a playoff run that should keep the Level busy through January, and they definitely have a legit shot at the Super Bowl. Hopefully they'll blow right through 10+ wins and be resting starters in week 17. As Birds fans, we have to be satisfied grateful to always be in this position after Labor Day. Look for me at Lambeau.

What do you predict?

Comments

[Dan]

Can't the Eagles just resign Koy Detmer to hold field goals again?

[leupus]

Good idea. I am sure there is a spot for Koy if there is more than a couple botched holds

[leupus]

Good idea. I am sure there is a spot for Koy if there is more than a couple botched holds

[gootman]

The Eagles can easily be 4-0 going into the bye week, @GB, WASH, DET, @NYG are all winnable games. Next four games I can see 2-2, @NYJ, CHI, @MIN, DAL. 3-1 seems reasonable for the next four games, @WASH, MIA, @NE, SEA. And finishing 2-2 four the final four games, NYG, @DAL, @NO, BUF.

11-5, NFC East champs. If they are going to go anywhere in the playoffs the key players need to stay healthy and the defense needs to play much better than they did last year and in the preseason.

[T]

Gootman I have to agree with that piece by piece assessment, even though all of the players would say they "take it one game at a time", I bet every guy in that locker room would agree with being capable of an 11-5 season.

[ryan]

Looking at the Eagles schedule you can certainly make a case for a 14-2 season, but like you said Matt, the birds always drop a few games that they shouldn't, I've got them at 11-5 NFC East Champions...and once the playoffs start, anything can happen, although they likely won't have homefield advantage throughout.

[Mike]

E-A-G-L-E-S. da bears are gonna die.